Geopolitical Uncertainty: What Business Leaders Need To Know

From black swans to gray rhinos, geopolitical shocks are multiplying. Here’s the toolkit smart leaders use to anticipate geopolitical risks and prepare for the future. Geopolitical surprise has become a permanent cost of doing business—and a one-size-fits-all approach to scenario planning can’t keep pace with it. In this episode of _The McKinsey Podcast,_ Partner and Global Director of Geopolitics Ziad Haider joins Editorial Director Roberta Fusaro to unpack five tools for sharpening foresight: horizon scanning, scenario planning, contingency planning, simulations, and tabletop exercises. They discuss why so few companies use these tools at scale, how AI is starting to reshape geopolitical risk assessment, and why human judgment remains essential for seeing around corners. *Chapters:* 00:00 – Introduction 01:00 – Is geopolitical scenario planning broken? 02:47 – Horizon scanning: Black swans and gray rhinos 03:36 – Scenario planning for an uncertain future 04:18 – Contingency planning: Preparing for a crisis 04:59 – How simulations prepare leadership teams 06:08 – Tabletop exercises and geopolitical war games 08:13 – The roles of AI and human intelligence 10:21 – Turning geopolitical uncertainty into opportunity 15:05 – Why business leaders need a new playbook Read more: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/geopolitics/our-insights/the-art-science-and-technology-of-geopolitical-scenario-planning The McKinsey Podcast is regularly cohosted by Lucia Rahilly and Roberta Fusaro. Subscribe to our channel: http://mck.co/YouTube Subscribe to our newsletters: http://mck.co/Subscribe *Find us on:* Facebook: http://mck.co/Facebook Twitter: http://mck.co/Twitter LinkedIn: http://mck.co/LinkedIn Instagram: http://mck.co/Instagram Theme music composed, performed, and produced by Joy Ngiaw. See www.mckinsey.com/privacy-policy for privacy information.