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Can the US and China escape the ‘Thucydides Trap’? | DW News

25.09.2026
Published: 25.09.2026 Category: Society and politics

Episode details

Episode description

Xi Jinping says the United States and China can avoid the "Thucydides Trap" - the idea that rivalry between a rising power and an established one often ends in war. But is that theory a useful warning for today's US-China relationship, or an oversimplification of a far more complex reality? We ask analyst Kelly Grieco. 00:00 What is the Thucydides trap and why does it define the US-China rivalry 00:47 Graham Allison's theory: 12 of 16 historical rivalries ended in war 01:34 Why Xi Jinping has invoked the Thucydides trap for a decade 02:48 Can diplomatic dialogue survive a moment of crisis? 03:40 How today's US-China rivalry differs from historical examples 04:33 Nuclear weapons as a stabilizing factor in US-China competition 04:50 Taiwan and the South China Sea: where China's red lines are 06:06 Is Taiwan the most dangerous US-China flashpoint? 07:02 Trade, artificial intelligence, and the race for critical resources 08:06 What Xi Jinping's Washington summit actually achieved 09:05 Is the US-China relationship moving toward or away from the Thucydides trap? For more news go to: http://www.dw.com/en/ Follow DW on social media: ►Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dwnews ►TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@dwnews ►Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/deutschewellenews/ ►Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwnews ►Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/DWNews/ Für Videos in deutscher Sprache besuchen Sie: https://www.youtube.com/dwdeutsch Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/user/deutschewelleenglish?sub_confirmation=1 #dwnews

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