687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole…