BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028: Economic growth at last year’s level in 2026

Russia’s economic growth last year slowed to 1 percent. Particularly weak trends in private consumption and fixed investment dragged down growth following decelerated wage growth, an increased tax burden and high interest rates. Net exports had a negative impact on GDP growth in 2025. Russian exports last year were hit hard by new sanctions on the oil sector. BOFIT senior economist Sinikka Parviainen: “Throughout the 2026–2028 forecast period, we expect the trajectory of the Russian economy to separate further into military industries and a struggling civilian economy. The government will maintain investment in the military-industrial complex as other investment is allowed to wither. Unless a private firm is involved in the military supply chain, it is unlikely to make significant investments. For this reason, growth in fixed investment overall will grind to a standstill.”